See photos and updates from listings directly in your feed
Share your favorite listings with friends and family
Save your search and get new listings directly in your mailbox before everybody else
This summer was supposed to bring a wave of momentum back to the real estate market—warmer weather, eager buyers, and maybe even some relief on mortgage rates. Instead, it’s brought bombs over Iran, rising oil prices, and a Federal Reserve that’s digging in its heels.
So what happens now?
Let’s break down how the dramatic turn of global and domestic events—President Trump’s military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the Fed’s refusal to lower rates—could ripple through the U.S. housing market in the months ahead.
Shockwaves from the Middle East
On June 22, the U.S. launched a targeted bombing campaign against three of Iran’s nuclear development sites. President Trump declared it a decisive blow—claiming the program had been set back “by decades.” But military analysts were quick to push back: the real damage may only delay Iran’s progress by several months.
Regardless of the outcome, the geopolitical stakes are high. Oil prices surged. Markets reeled. And buyers—already spooked by high borrowing costs—now face another layer of uncertainty.
This kind of geopolitical shock doesn’t just affect headlines. It affects sentiment. And sentiment is what drives decision-making in real estate—especially for buyers on the fence.
The Fed Holds the Line
Just two days later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear: there would be no rate cut in July. Despite rising global instability, the central bank is holding firm, citing persistent inflation and strong wage growth as reasons to stay the course.
This means mortgage rates—already hovering around 6.7%—aren’t coming down anytime soon. For homebuyers, that keeps monthly payments high and affordability low. For sellers, it means more price sensitivity and fewer bidding wars.
In other words: we’re stuck in a standoff. Buyers want better rates. The Fed wants more stability. And until one side budges, the market will likely drift sideways.
What This Means for Summer Real Estate
So how do these twin pressures—global tension and tight monetary policy—play out across the real estate landscape?
1. Buyers are hitting the brakes.
Many prospective homeowners were already stretching to afford monthly payments. Add in the uncertainty of war, and some are choosing to wait. Expect slower foot traffic at open houses and more “price reduced” signs in mid-tier markets.
2. Sellers need to recalibrate.
Sellers who thought they could command top dollar may need a reality check. The emotional frenzy of the pandemic market is long gone. To sell this summer, listings will need to be sharp, priced right, and move-in ready.
3. Investment activity could tighten.
Higher rates mean lower yields on rental properties, particularly in expensive metropolitan areas. Investors may shift to more stable markets—or hold cash—until borrowing costs come down or prices adjust.
4. Secondary markets stay strong—for now.
Cities with lower price points (think parts of the Midwest and South) could remain resilient. Why? They’re still affordable relative to incomes and remain attractive to remote workers or first-time buyers looking for value.
What Could Shift the Landscape
There are still a few wildcards that could flip the script:
- A ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough could calm markets, stabilize energy prices, and encourage risk-taking.
- An unexpected Fed pivot—perhaps in response to weakening labor data—could lower mortgage rates and bring sidelined buyers back.
- A major escalation in Iran could spook global investors, pushing capital into U.S. Treasuries and indirectly driving rates down.
For now, though, we’re likely in for a market defined by hesitation, recalibration, and patience.
The Bottom Line
This summer’s housing market won’t be marked by fireworks and frenzied offers—it’ll be shaped by restraint. The war abroad and the battle over interest rates at home are casting long shadows. But in that stillness, there’s also opportunity: for buyers to negotiate, for sellers to reset, and for smart investors to prepare.
Because in real estate, the best moves are often made while everyone else is holding their breath.
